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BTC remains close to US$25k, despite banking concerns in Europe

Bitcoin prices remained close to US$25k in the last 24h, but with greater volatility, due to increasing expectations of a more dovish Fed.

March 15, 2023 - Bitcoin prices remained close to US$25k in the last 24h, but with greater volatility. After the release of February US inflation data, on top of increasing expectations of a more dovish Fed due to the risk of a banking crisis, the major cryptocurrency reached US$26k, retreating more than US$1k yesterday. Before the upbeat moment faded away, the US producer price index (PPI) released this morning came in lower-than-expected, underscoring the positive sentiment towards the next Fed interest rate decision, and sustaining Bitcoin prices near the US$25k price level resistance. For now, the problems with the Swiss bank Credit Suisse does not seem to be impacting the crypto market.

Bitcoin has apparently moved from the US$19-24k price range to around US$22-26k after the recent events, and renewed expectations of a 25bps interest rate hike on March 22. According to several technical analysts in the market, BTC could retest both lower and higher limits of this price range, but it is unlikely that the prices could reach levels much lower than US$20-22k for the time being. On the other hand, if the largest cryptocurrency breaks the US$26k price resistance, there could be conditions for a more strong bull run in the upcoming weeks, in our view.

Meanwhile, the preparations for the Ethereum network Shanghai Update are at full speed, which could have some impact on prices. The Shapella hard fork has been executed, which was the last test run before Ethereum validators will be able to withdraw their Ether from the Beacon Chain. Three testnets were used, but the last one most closely resembles the Ethereum blockchain, so this test was the most anticipated. The mainnet launch date has not yet been disclosed, but it is likely to occur in April. The last big change in the Ethereum blockchain, the Merge, was expected to improve ETH prices, but this was frustrated. We are seeing some increased expectations that the Shanghai Upgrade may cause a surge in prices soon.

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